Most of New Jersey's Assembly seats are in uncompetitive districts, with the major parties focused on just a handful that could potentially flip. (Dana DiFilippo | New Jersey Monitor)
By Nikita Biryukov
Reprinted with permission
of New Jersey Monitor
All 80 New Jersey General Assembly seats are on the ballot Tuesday, with Republicans hoping to flip enough districts to claim a lower-chamber majority that has eluded them for nearly a quarter century.
There are no certainties in this year’s legislative races, which will play second fiddle to the gubernatorial contest at the top of the ballot. Republican Jack Ciattarelli and Democrat Mikie Sherill are the front-runners in the race to succeed Gov. Phil Murphy on Nov. 4.
Ciattarelli ran for governor in 2021 and lost to Murphy, but his performance in some areas of the state was good enough to help the GOP flip six Assembly seats and a state Senate seat that year (most flipped back to the Democratic column two years later).
Still, Republicans face an uphill climb to grab control of the Assembly this year. They’d need to flip more than 12 Assembly seats to claim a majority. The chamber, for now, is split 52-28 in favor of Democrats.
Dan Cassino, director of the Fairleigh Dickinson University poll, said the major parties’ chances in the state’s competitive districts are dependent on the performance of their gubernatorial candidate.
“The issue is voters aren’t paying a lot of attention to what’s going on at the Assembly level, so you’re going to see very, very little split-ticket voting,” he said.
Most of New Jersey’s legislative districts are not competitive, with the two major parties focused on a handful like the 3rd and 8th districts in South Jersey. Some seats in the southern end of the state have repeatedly changed hands in recent years, which have seen tightened margins.
The 8th District is one of only two in the state where Assembly representation is split between both parties. It is among the state’s most closely watched contests, and the most expensive. Candidates and outside groups have put more than $4.6 million into the district, according to an analysis by the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission.
There, Assemblywoman Andrea Katz (D-Burlington) faces a repeat race against Assemblyman Michael Torrissi (R-Burlington). Torrissi’s running mate is Brandon Umba, a former assemblyman whom Katz ousted in 2023 in a race that took a week to call, while Katz is joined on the ballot by Anthony Angelozzi, a Hammonton High School history teacher and union leader.
The 8th District’s results were among the closest in the state in 2023.
“I’m not sure what to expect, but I’d be surprised if it was as close as it was the last time. I’ll be watching to see if it’s the same order, but it takes a lot for it to land as close as it did,” said Micah Rasmussen, director of Rider University’s Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics.
The 3rd District, which includes parts of Cumberland, Gloucester, and Salem counties, could also be competitive this year. That’s a district that has toggled back and forth between GOP and Democratic control in recent elections.
Incumbent Assembly members Heather Simmons and Dave Bailey, both Gloucester County Democrats, are seeking second terms against Republicans Gloucester County Commissioner Chris Konawel and Harrison Deputy Mayor Lawrence Moore.
Another pair of first-term Democrats, Assemblywomen Margie Donlon and Luanne Peterpaul of Monmouth County, are vying for reelection against former Neptune City Mayor Andrew Wardell and U.S. Green Building Council co-chair Jessica Ford.
Donlon and Peterpaul reclaimed the 11th District’s Assembly seats by broad margins in 2023, two years after Republicans ousted Democratic Assembly incumbents there in 2021. Sen. Vin Gopal (D-Monmouth), who has represented the district since 2018, is not on the ballot this year.
“I certainly sense that Republicans understand that Vin Gopal is an important piece of this puzzle, that he is someone who can crank out the vote even when he’s not on the ballot,” Rasmussen said.
