Aug 28, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola walks into the dugout before a game against the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park. (Grace Del Pizzo/On Pattison)
The United States has completed their portion of pool play in the World Baseball Classic. Following a stunning upset at the hands of Italy — one that manager Mark DeRosa seemingly didn't grasp the importance of — they're going to need some help to advance to the quarterfinals.
“I misspoke” -Mark DeRosa https://t.co/DcDeWVNvz0 pic.twitter.com/E4AxY5KMaM
— Phillies Tailgate (@PhilsTailgate) March 11, 2026
Specifically, the United States needs help from Aaron Nola.
The American squad finished 3-1 in Pool B. However, Mexico (2-1) and Italy (3-0) will face off with each other at 7 p.m. ET Wednesday, with the results determining whether or not the United States will advance to the quarterfinals or head home in shame.
Nola will try to follow up his former Phillies teammate Michael Lorenzen's tremendous start Tuesday with one of his own. He'll have a max of 65 pitches, but if he's successful in leading his club to a victory, not only will Italy advance, so will the United States.
However, there are some more complicated scenarios where tiebreakers could come into play.
Clinching scenarios for Italy-Mexico game:
1. Italy win ➡️ Italy wins Pool B, USA finishes as the runner-up
2. Mexico win ➡️ All teams finish 3-1, comes down to secondary tiebreaker of fewest runs allowed in the round against the other two tied teams pic.twitter.com/bfVEYDrLD9
Current runs allowed by each team facing each other:
USA (2 games): 11 runs
Italy (1 game): 6 runs
Mexico: (1 game): 5 runs
So if Mexico were to win 2-1, both them and Italy would have given up less than the 11 combined runs the U.S. allowed against their top Pool B competition. The U.S. would go home then. But as you can see above, there are other scenarios where enough runs are scored in a Mexico win over Italy Wednesday to help the U.S. move on. To dumb things down, Nola either needs to shove or get lit up Wednesday for the U.S. to move on.
Nola, the longest-tenured Phillie, is looking to rebound from the worst season of his MLB career, as he posted a 6.01 ERA in 17 starts a season ago. He allowed two hits and one run over two innings against the Miami Marlins on Feb. 27, his only start of Grapefruit League play so far this season. This will be his first start in the WBC.
